What the 2025 Liberal Victory Means for Canadian Immigration
Now that the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney have won the 2025 election, we have clearer expectations for what lies ahead in Canadian immigration.
Although the campaign barely touched on immigration, the Liberals did summarize their plans at a high level in their platform. I provided commentary for THE PIE News, alongside several other prominent figures in Canada’s international education sector.
Here are the highlights from the Liberal platform that you should be aware of:
Holding permanent resident targets at below 1% of Canada’s population, which means closer to 400,000 new permanent residents per year, rather than the 500,000 per year to which Trudeau’s government had aspired
Higher French-language targets: This year’s target is 7.5%, and candidates already understand how valuable French-language abilities are to obtaining PR. By 2029, with a target of 12%, candidates in the economic classes will struggle to be invited for permanent residence if they don’t speak French or work in a target occupation.
Ongoing plans to reduce Canada’s temporary resident population from a high of 7.3% to below 5% by 2027. That’s a less aggressive (and more realistic) target than the 2026 goal of former immigration minister Marc Miller. Here are examples of how that work is in progress:
Restrictions on spousal open work permits
Restrictions on Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) eligibility
Higher refusal rates: IRCC officers are doing everything possible to refuse work, study, and visitor applications as possible. It’s more important than ever to have a perfect application. IRCC does not typically give applicants the opportunity to submit missing documentation.
Of course, much change is anticipated in Canada and the world, especially in the era of Donald Trump 2.0. Canada’s immigration plans may change as well.
All we can do is use the information that we know now to develop our strategies. I expect that we won’t see much policy change in 2025, because the Carney government has other major issues to deal with. However, by 2026, as plans for national infrastructure projects and investment in priority sectors come to life, we may see shifts in immigration policy as well.
